除去夸张的恐惧，中国的视频监控市场是惊人的。中国是视频监控设备最大的消费国，也是视频监控市场增长最快的国家。在中国，部署10万台以上的摄像机的城市级项目并不少见，这些项目甚至超过了欧洲或美国最大的企业级项目。那么，印度，以它快速增长的经济、庞大的人口和新兴的中产阶级，可以跟它的邻居中国一样吗?

　　印度的视频监控市场目前达到中国市场规模的十分之一 (在2010年估计为1.65亿美元)。其成长快速，特别是IP类市场，获得了政府的资金支持。然而，中国近几年来的市场的大部分增长，得益于该国政府希望密切关注它的人口。中国的以政治或经济动机推动部署大规模的公共监控项目，这对印度来讲是极不可能的，印度达不到跟中国同等的水平，这就降低了印度视频监控市场的增长潜力。这种使用监控技术政治动机的缺乏是否会遏制了印度的市场成长呢，还是说印度可以在其他垂直行业中赶上中国?

　　零售市场是视频监控可以获得典型拉动力的行业市场——使用视频监控的投资回报率(ROL)是可论证的。但是有一个问题。印度零售市场很大程度上对魏国公司是封闭的，外商直接投资(FDI)单一品牌零售份额限制在51%以内，而且多品牌零售的直接投资限于现金自运及批发业务。由于缺少外国投资，印度的零售面从农场到商店都遇到了瓶颈。2010年夏天，印度消费者事务部建议，49%的外国直接投资可以进入到多品牌规模零售以及后端业务，重点如物流。美国总体奥巴马最近在孟买访问的时候释放出信息，强调外资需求的重要性以及外资的介入对印度和美国公司都有好处。但是，印度政府还没有下决定，因独立观察员并不指望2011年前这种情况会发生改变。如果外资开放能在2011年实现，我们可以看到零售行业在视频监控设备上的支出在中长期产生“涓流”效果。 

　　视频监控支出典型地跟随基础设施项目中的资本投资，印度也不例外。目前，印度的第十一个五计划(2007-2012)过了大半。五年计划是政府设计用来改善经济、社会条件、环境和基础设施的路线图。第十个五年计划中，对于基础设施的建设的支出目标是占GDP的5%多一点，在十一五计划里上升到7.5%。为了保证实现制造业、农业和服务业发展的目标，印度认为在第十二个五年计划中基础设施建设支出需要达到GDP的10%。基于这些数据，可以清楚的看到，在视频监控中的投资与道路、机场和铁路密切相关。

　　一个悲哀的现实——印度的恐怖袭击——已经使得提高安全和防护成为需要。这与其它深受恐怖袭击困扰的类似国家没什么不同，印度政府已经批准国土安全支出，以改善国家处理危机时效率低下的问题。虽然很难苹果有多少运算将会用到视频监控当中，但是可以假定，随着与其他国家的交流，一些预算将用于保护交通枢纽、重要的基础设施。这将毫无疑问地证明视频监控市场膨胀的好处。

　　值得乐观的是，印度有着巨大的视频监控市场潜力。积极的经济指标和对安全持续增长的需求是视频监控爆炸性应用的必要条件。然而，目前看来似乎很清楚的是，在未来一段时间里，印度还没有能力赶超中国。

【英文】

Will India’s Video Surveillance Boom be as Big as China’s?

Without fear of hyperbole, the Chinese video surveillance market is phenomenal. It’s the largest consumer of video surveillance equipment and one of the fastest growing markets. City-wide deployments of 100,000+ cameras are not uncommon, dwarfing even the largest European or US ‘enterprise’ projects. Can India, with its fast economic growth, huge population, and burgeoning middle-class; mirror its neighbour?[nextpage]

The Indian video surveillance market is currently one-tenth the size of the Chinese market (an estimated $165m in 2010). It is growing quickly, particularly the IP segment, and is receiving government funding. However, much of the growth in recent years in China has been fuelled by its government’s desire to keep a close watch over its population. It’s highly unlikely that India has the political or financial motivation to deploy large scale public surveillance projects to the same degree as China, thereby reducing the potential growth of the video surveillance market. Will this lack of politically motivated use of surveillance technology curb India’s growth, or can it match China in other verticals?

Retail is one market where video surveillance typically gains traction – with its use having a demonstrable ROI. But there is a problem. The Indian retail market is largely closed to foreign firms, with foreign direct investment (FDI) restricted to 51% in single-brand retail and FDI for multi-brand retail limited to cash-and-carry and wholesale operations. Without foreign investment, development of the retail sector from farm to store will be bottle-necked in India. Over the summer in 2010, the Indian Consumer Affairs Ministry recommended that 49% FDI be allowed in multi-brand retail, with an emphasis on back-end operations such as logistics. US President Obama Echoed this message in a recent meeting in Mumbai, stressing the need for foreign investment and the mutual benefits to both Indian and American firms. However, a decision has yet to be taken by the Indian Government and independent observers do not expect the situation to change until 2011. Should FDI be realised in 2011, the trickledown effect could see spending on video surveillance equipment in retail soar in the mid to long-term.　　

A sad reality of the terrorist attacks in India has been the heightened need for security and protection. In a move not dissimilar to other countries that have suffered terrorist attacks, India’s government has approved homeland security spending to improve the country’s effectiveness when dealing with crises. Whilst it is difficult to assess how much budget will be made available for video surveillance, it can be assumed that, as with other nations, some funds will be earmarked for the protection of transportation hubs and critical infrastructure. This will undoubtedly prove a boon for the expanding video surveillance market.

Optimistically, India has huge potential for video surveillance. Positive economic indicators and an increasing need for security are necessary conditions for an explosion in use of video surveillance. However, it seems clear that the Indian tiger won’t slay the Chinese dragon for some time to come.